Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Forecasting techniques

The manpower forecasting techniques commonly employed by modern organisations are given below:
 
i. Expert forecasts: In this method, managers estimate future human resource requirements, using their experiences and judgements to good effect.

ii. Trend analysis: HR needs can be estimated by examining past trends. Past rates of change can be projected into the future or employment growth can be estimated by its relationship with a particular index.

Trend Analysis (An Example)

2001-02                   Production of Units          :               5,000
2002-03                   No. of Workers               :               100
                                 Ratio                               :               100:5000
2003-04                   Estimated Production       :                8,000

                                                      100
No. of Workers required : 8000 × -------  = 160
                                                       5000

If supervisors have a span of 20 workers, 8 supervisors are also needed in 2003-04.